Dutch general election 2017 Odds
The next general elections in the Netherlands will take place on March 15th 2017.
It is likely that the outcome of these elections will be little less than a political revolution. Over the last four years, several parties have lost representatives who then started their own fraction. At the current time, Dutch parliament houses x one-man fractions.
After the elections, parliament will be most likely more fragmented than ever before.. Apart from the traditional parties such as PvdA (labour), VVD (liberals), CDA (Christian-Democrats), SP (Socialist), D66 (Democrats) a lot of relative newcomers will try to gain a seat in Parliament.
In total, 81 parties have registered for the upcoming elections.
One major factor in the upcoming elections is Geert Wilders who is the foreman of the PVV. Geert Wilders, who left the VVD, started PVV as a movement. Contrary to political parties, the PVV does not have members. It is a vehicle that Geert Wilders uses to "tell it how it is". In earlier elections, Geert Wilders managed to move his PVV in a very strategic position. His fractions’ votes would bring the majority to the ruling parties PvdA and VVD. In return, the PVV had a huge influence on policy.
Abroad, the PVV is usually considered an extreme-rightwing party. Wilders is compared to politicians such as Marine le Pen (France) and Nigel Farage (UK). And indeed, the "Islamification of the Netherlands" is the most imporant theme in Wilders' speeches.
Some of these speeches have led to legal actions against him. His first trial ended in a "not-guilty". His second one, however, was less in his favour. Judges found him guilty of racism, which means Geert Wilders now has a criminal record.
His popularity doesn't suffer from it, though. In fact, his popularity has soared during and after the trial. Many Dutch people feel sympathy for the man, whom they consider a brave politician who has the guts to leave the path of political correctness.
Add to this that the current coalition of VVD and PvdA has taken a large number of impopular measures, and has often been forced to backtrack on promises made to the people. Taxes have repeatedly been increased, while benefits and government services have declined significantly. Many in the Netherlands are frustrated and angry.
Geert Wilders very skilfully connects with these people, and promises a new future, a better future. That message appeals to many. Therefore, it is likely that he will gain a large segment of Parliament. However, it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. Other parties have already ruled out that possibility.