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Moderate Party Odds

The people of Sweden expressed an enormous support for Moderaterna, or the Moderate Party, during 2006 and 2010. Other than having tremendous voter support, they won two general elections in a row. During the general election off 2006 they had a voter support of 26,23% which meant more votes than they had ever had during the past 70 years. This marked a change in a trend of shrinking support. During the general election of 2010 the trend was confirmed and they received 30% of the votes. The latest general election, in 2014, saw Moderaterna make a sharp turn and only getting 23,2% of the votes. It marked the end of an eight year period of voter support. Since politics is a game of probability, its hard to say exactly what the reasons for this change are. Since the current coalition government, headed by the social democrats, is losing voter support according to the opinion polls we might gain from looking at what made Moderaterna gain such an amount of support during the earlier elections.


During 2006 Moderaterna and the alliance published an economically oriented manifesto. Lowered general payroll tax was said to be a way to create mobility and efficiency in the job market. They were open to private welfare companies and the possibility for work related immigration increased drastically. Grades were going to be introduced for younger school children. Their manifesto for the year 2010 was called the work manifesto. It continued with the ideas from the previous manifesto with more focus on job related deductions and school reforms. But this period also saw an interest in expanding the infrastructure with high speed Internet and public transport. They expressed the ambition to privatize public companies at a higher rate.

If you look at the numbers. The Swedish people agreed on the planned developments. But what happened 2014? The manifesto for 2014 was more of the same. Taxes were to be left untouched and most reforms had to do with the school system to increase Sweden's falling PISA-rates. The housing crisis was to be solved with 300 000 new residences.

Decreased support

What made Moderaterna lose voter confidence? Most reforms were realized. But they did not succeeded in balancing the public finances and reinstate the silent goal of managing krona för krona. (one dollar out requires one dollar in). Neither did the reformed school see any change in quality or results. People might have felt that different political results could not be achieved by more of the same solutions. After all, similar plans and goals had marked the past eight years.

Future support

We can mention a few of the problems that were rampant during the alliance: bad public finances, housing crisis and increasingly worse school results. When the current coalition government, headed by the social democrats, were elected they inherited many of the issues. They boldly proclaimed that they could deal with the issues and deal with them swiftly. But since many of the problems have turned for worse, people now see the current government with the same eyes that decided to not support Moderaterna.

We can ask ourselves if the voters will return to Moderaterna and their model or if they will go to newer and more radical parties.

Moderate Party to obtain a higher percentage of votes at the election 2018 than the election 2014

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