2024 NBA Championship: Are Favourites Worth the Wager?
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The 2023–24 National Basketball Association season is here, and there is as much excitement surrounding this season as in recent memory. One reason for the excitement is that more teams are hunting for the NBA Championship title. This article will examine the top betting favourites and which bets are the best.
Top Contenders
Let's start by looking at the top contenders across both conferences.
Boston Celtics | +375
Surprisingly, Vegas still sees the Celtics as the basketball betting favourites in the East despite Milwaukee's acquisition of Damian Lillard. The most recent Celtics teams competed for the title but needed more star power to rival their competitors. Since 2016, Boston has reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times and made the NBA Finals two years ago, but they still need to improve to the degree that they are the overwhelming favourites. Adding Kristaps Porzingas helped make the Celtics the odds-on favourite this season.
Milwaukee Bucks | +450
Right on the Celtics' tail is Milwaukee, who are fan favourites to win the title. Already a perennial Finals contender and winner in 2020–21, the Bucks added Lillard and found a much-needed closer. The trade immediately made them title favourites, even more so considering they didn't have to trade Kris Middleton to acquire Dame. The Bucks are among the most popular picks to win the NBA Finals.
Denver Nuggets | +500
The defending champs opened up the year surprisingly as only the third-best odds to win the title. History is on the Nuggets' side, as repeat champions are much more common in the NBA than in football or baseball. They return all their core starters, each of who are either in or entering their prime. They also play in a much easier Western Conference, an advantage over both Boston and Milwaukee.
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Threatening The Top
Boston, Milwaukee, and Denver are the three clear favourites to win the Finals. However, several teams on the fringe can threaten them, and they all have two things in common: they all come from the West, and they all struggle to stay healthy.
Phoenix Suns | +650
The West lacks the top-end competition that the East has, but the Suns don't lack star power. Phoenix underperformed last season and failed to reach the Western Conference Finals. Kevin Durant is crucial to their success, meaning injuries could derail their season. With that said, Durant and Devin Booker pack a punch, making them a threat if healthy.
Los Angeles Clippers | +1200
The argument can be made that the Clippers are the most intriguing team in the league, and the signing of James Harden strengthened that argument. Like the Suns, injuries can and have derailed Los Angeles' success since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George came to town. Adding Harden feels like a despairing last-effort move to win with the current core — who could all be free agents after this season. If healthy, they could make some noise.
Los Angeles Lakers | +1200
Last on our list of Western Conference teams with health concerns are the Los Angeles Lakers. Their surprising trip to the Western Conference Finals last season shows they have enough talent to make a run. More so, it showed that LeBron James is still arguably the best player in the NBA of his day. The only problem is that he is 39. He and Anthony Davis have one goal this season: Get through the season with a top-four seed in the West without getting injured while leaving gas in the tank for the playoffs. That is unlikely, but not impossible.
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Dark Horse Threats
Lastly, let's look at a few dark horse candidates. These bets are long shots, but they would bring in significant returns if they succeed.
Cleveland Cavaliers | +2500
The Cavaliers have arguably the best young core in the league, with Donovan Mitchell leading the way. The East is packed, but the Cavs are the third-best team and could find themselves on the doorstep of the Finals if they secure the #3 seed and get some help from a team like the Heat in the playoffs.
Dallas Mavericks | +2500
The Dallas Mavericks are on a roller coaster. Two years ago, superstar Luke Doncic dragged a so-so roster to the Western Conference Finals. Last season, they let Jalen Brunson walk, traded for Kyrie Irving, and somehow missed the playoffs. This year, they started 5-1 and are banking on their star power and unstoppable offence to make a run.
Miami Heat | +3500
After making the NBA Finals two of the last four seasons and being one game seven win away from being three trips, Miami still opens up the season as the 11th favourite team to win the Finals. Last season, they took down the #1 seed Bucks in the first round and made the Finals as the #8 seed. They could help the Cavs by doing something similar this season. Don't count out the Heat.
Which Bets Are Worth It?
This feels like an easy one. For starters, staying away from the Celtics seems too easy. Boston is an excellent team, but they have made the Finals just once with Jayson Tatum and need more top-end talent than other teams in the league to succeed. In the other conference, getting the Nuggets at +500 feels like the best bet, as they have an easier road to the Finals, which is half the battle. Taking a flyer on the Heat doesn't feel outrageous either, considering the payout and their history.
Picking The Right Bet
There are a lot of exciting bets to make, and right now is the best time to put money down. However, when it comes to an NBA Finals winner bet, it's essential to stick with the favourites and not dig too deep. Denver feels like the best bet, but that's up to you to decide.