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Scottish independence referendum Odds

Referendum to be held before 1 January 2020

Odd unit: EU | UK | US

Should I stay or should I go?

With Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon officially requesting second independence referendum, the recent UK tie-breaking saga continues. In case you had forgotten, the first “Indy Ref” resulted in a No majority of 55% to 45%. After which the nation generally accepted the situation and continued on as normal, with the vote becoming an increasingly forgotten memory.

And then Boom, Brexit.

Suddenly Scotland was facing a second referendum in as many years, but this time around was much more decisive and clearer in its individual reasoning. With seasoned Scottish voters now aware of the sly tactics likely to be used by both the Remain and Leave campaigns, the progressive nature of the population shone through with a 62% majority vote to Remain, mainly due to an understanding of the benefits of the European Union and migration outweighing any reason to leave. With such a strong majority vote to stay, it was definitely felt amongst the people that this boded signs for yet another independence vote much sooner than expected. Perhaps this was the silver lining the SNP government were looking for that would lead Scotland out from under the Westminster chains?

A number of uncharacteristically British things happened throughout the Brexit period. The murder of a prominent Labour MP days before the vote and a rise in xenophobic outbursts south of the border in the immediate aftermath of the vote, painted a disturbing picture amongst Scottish and EU nationals of what the near future could bring. There were no such extreme events reported north in Scotland however, only the publicly resolute figure of Sturgeon who published almost immediately her plans for taking Scotland forward. This was in contrast to Westminster, where seemingly nobody had a plan for the UK, many still couldn’t believe the UK had actually voted to leave, and were now the butt of every national joke made worldwide for weeks.

Sturgeon outlined and assured EU and foreign nationals that they were still welcome in Scotland, who faced being taken out of the EU against its will, a prospect Sturgeon described as “democratically unacceptable”. This again less than two years after being told by Westminster that voting to stay within the UK was also a sure vote for staying in the EU. It would take a stubborn person to argue against Yes voters feeling a little disillusioned.

Now that Article 50 has officially been triggered by Theresa May, she takes millions of people into unchartered waters, and still without a clear or well-defined exit strategy. The UK that Scotland voted to remain a part of in 2014 simply does not exist anymore.

Do the people of Scotland want to live in an outward looking country or a diminished “Little Britain”? How long can Westminster keep telling Scotland to do what they’re told, to be forced into situations against their will? The Westminster rhetoric until now could not disguise the gaping chasm that there is not unity anymore in the so called United Kingdom.

The Scottish Government has voted in favour of demanding a second Scottish Independence Referendum, after Brexit negotiations have concluded. If the differences between the Scottish people and the rest of the UK are not respected by Westminster, then Scottish independence is surely inevitable.


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