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Lifelong Democrats Voted for Donald Trump

These days people bet on everything so it’s no surprise that we’re already hearing talk about the 2020 presidential election in the United States. It’s far too early to place any bets on the candidates or on the outcome of the election but there are some things we can learn that will give us nicer odds when the time comes to place a bet.

Interestingly enough, sports betting is allowed in only four US states. The Supreme Court will soon decide if sports betting is permissible under the US constitution. Even if it rules against the rights of Americans in every state to place bets legally on sporting events or on the presidential candidate of their choice, at least they’ll be able to play slotsplay free games!

Electoral College

The American system of electing presidents is fundamentally different than the European systems. In the US, the President is chosen in what they call the Electoral College.

The United States is a union of independent states. The union is run by the national constitution which sought to limit the scope of the central government in Washington. Although much of the constitution has been ignored for the last 70 years, the Electoral College remains intact.

The Electoral College was designed to lower the electoral power of the most populous states. In theory, a presidential candidate could win the national popular vote but lose in the Electoral College. This is exactly what happened in 2016.

Clinton won the national popular vote by 3,000,000 votes but lost resoundingly in the Electoral College. Her margin of victory in the two most populous states, California and New York, was 5,000,000 votes, well above the final popular vote margin.

In the last 16 years, the Democratic Party has now lost two presidential elections in the Electoral College while winning the popular vote: Al Gore lost to George Bush in 2000 and now Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump.

So, as you survey the Democratic field for 2020, you have to look for a candidate who can reverse the losses in important but less populous states like Michigan and Pennsylvania without abandoning the party’s core principles which are very far left and unacceptable to most voters outside of New York and California.

Winnowing the Field

It is unlikely at this time to imagine that the Democratic Party would choose one of the over 70 year old candidates to run against Trump in 2020. The party desperately needs younger people to take their place in national politics.

All of the well-known Democratic Party possible candidates are far to the left of mainstream America in their politics. America has long fought against socialism. President Obama did a great deal to bring socialism to the United States, primarily through the health care law that he fought to be passed.

The health care law has not had the salutary effect on overall health care in the US that it was intended to have. So, any presidential candidate will have to be able to defend the law, to appease the far left of the party, while also coming out in favor of rewriting the law to solve the problems it caused.

Trump Orchestrating Economic Recovery

The tax law recently passed was criticized by Democrats. They continued to criticize it even though many companies have decided to return to their employees some of the tax saving they will enjoy form the law. One of the wealthiest women in America, Democratic Representative Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, called these $1000 or more bonuses “crumbs”. It might be crumbs to her, but to the large majority of workers, a $1000 wind-fall is more than welcome.

To Have a Gun or Not to Have a Gun

The second amendment to the constitution prohibits Congress from making gun ownership illegal. Democrats cite murders committed with guns as proof that the US needs to void the second amendment. This position runs very well in California but is very unpopular in most other states.

Changing Face of Abortion Advocacy

The Democratic Party is fully behind unrestricted abortion rights for women. The Republican Party is largely opposed to abortion rights and especially to abortions after the baby can feel the pain of the abortion. This issue has not been resolved in any workable compromise.

When the Supreme Court ruled in the early 1970’s that abortion must be allowed in all states, there were few women who opposed the decision. Those who did came from the religious point of view. Today, where through the technology of ultrasound we can see babies in all their levels of in-utero development, many non-religious women have joined the anti-abortion camp.

Needed: A Candidate Who Speaks Across Party Lines

These are just a few of the issues that so strongly divide the nation that any Democrat hoping to defeat Trump will have to find a way to articulate both sides of the argument without offending the core Democratic base which has gone very far to the left.

One online opinion site, politico.com, recently ran an article extolling the possibility of a soft-spoken, bland candidate to run for the presidency. This would contrast with Trump’s bombastic personality. According to this article, a relatively mild Democratic candidate might simply retake all those erstwhile Democratic voters in the northern states that surprisingly went for Trump. By not being offensive in his or her support for Democratic policy principles, the candidate would make it comfortable for voters to return to their “natural home”—the Democratic Party.

This approach likely would not work. The American system of primaries means that every state can vote for the candidate it wants to be the party’s nominee. A bland candidate would likely not survive the first few primaries—and there are 50 primaries!

The candidates who can make loud raucous speeches are all on the far left; again, this plays well in California but not so well elsewhere.

Beating Trump at His Own Game

A more realistic approach is to see where Trump’s real strength lies: social media. He doesn’t elicit praise for his character. Before running for the presidency, he was known as a television personality with a business-oriented reality show. But he has a massive following on social media.

Democrats were too late in understanding the immense potential of social media for energizing voters. So, a Democratic candidate for the presidency will have to have a large following on social media, contrast positively with Trump on personal character issues, be very well known before entering the race, and be able to bring order out the chaos that is the Democratic Party today.

Many have seen in Oprah Winfrey the candidate who can bring all of these elements to the campaign. She would be able to maintain support from the left even if she speaks kindly of right wing values.

Oprah Winfrey has said that she’s not seriously considering running. But a lot can change in the next year. The presidential primaries will begin in late 2019 but debates will begin much earlier than that.

The Democratic Party has little hope at this time to unseat President Trump but if Oprah Winfrey or someone with the proven popularity she possesses enters the contest, they just might become the favourite to win the election.