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Most seats UK Next General Election

Which party will win the most seats in next general election?

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Which party will win the most seats in the next general election?

After three general elections and a referendum in just five years the thought of another election may make most people groan. But in a democracy elections happen sooner or later and the UK’s next one is scheduled, unless there is a change to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, to take place on 2 May 2024. But who is most likely to win the most seats?

The Conservatives

The Conservatives have many advantages, not least incumbency which means they are in a position to shape the policy agenda for any election campaign. They also have an electoral system that may help, the most recent Boundary Commission review is generally considered to favour the Conservatives. And they have time on their side. Although, in the middle of a pandemic, they may be embattled they have a healthy majority and lots of time for people, and their poll numbers, to recover.

However, there are still lots of things that can go wrong. The coronavirus pandemic is far from over and the government will be judged on its handling. The Brexit transition period is also ending soon and there is a risk of economic fall-out from that tarring the Conservative brand. Boris Johnson may like being compared with Churchill, but there’s a big risk he might be more like a Major, with events early in his term over-shadowing him for years until defeat at the ballot box.

Labour

Oppositions don’t win elections, the saying goes, governments lose them. Labour’s problem is that while it can present itself as a credible alternative government, it is still reliant on the Conservatives losing the electorate’s trust if it is to win.

Sir Keir Starmer has got off to a good start and initial polling suggests many would prefer him as Prime Minister over Boris Johnson. However, the Labour Party is much less popular with the public than its leader. Much of this is a hangover from Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader who never found widespread favour among the public. However, that isn’t the only Corbyn hangover Sir Keir has to consider. The Labour Party’s tendency to indulge in internecine warfare is, again, showing itself as the left of the party push back against a more mainstream leader. To succeed Labour will have to demonstrate a united front for an electorate that, traditionally, prefers parties that don’t have internal splits.

Other parties

Are there any other parties in with a chance? Probably not. The only other UK-wide parties with seats in Parliament, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, would need a shift of seismic proportions to make the gains required to win them most seats. And while other parties have done well in other elections, such as the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections, when it comes to choosing a government the fight is always between the Conservatives and Labour.

Conclusion

From the current situation, with growing criticism of the Conservatives handling of the pandemic it’s easy to conclude that Labour are likely to have the most seats at the next election. While time will allow Labour to shake off the negative associations of Jeremy Corbyn it’s less likely to prove as beneficial for the Conservatives if they are dealing with the political and economic fallout from a bad pandemic and Brexit.

But the political landscape is constantly shifting. In a fully post-Brexit, post pandemic Britain the next election genuinely could be anybody’s.